Wednesday, January 4, 2012

Divisional Round Scenario #1: Texans at Ravens

We will be taking a look at the three possible scenarios for the upcoming divisional round playoff game. The Ravens will play the highest seeded surviving team of the AFC wild card round. The #3 seeded Houston Texans will be coming to Baltimore if they beat the #6 seeded Cincinnati Bengals on Saturday. If this happens, the Ravens will be salivating at the prospect of playing the team they beat 29-14 back in week 6.

This is a different team than it was back in week 6. And I don't mean that in a good way. Matt Schaub was lost for the season with a foot injury. Then backup Matt Leinart went down as well with a broken collarbone. Rookie T.J. Yates has been quarterbacking them since then. He came out hot, even engineering a last minute game winning drive against the Bengals in week 14 in only his 2nd start. Since then, he's came back down to earth as the Texans lost their final 3 games to end the season. He injured his left shoulder last week against the Titans, and 36 year old Jake Delhomme played out the game. Texans coach Gary Kubiak has reportedly said he expects Yates to start this week against the Bengals.


If the Texans pull off the victory against the Andy Dalton led Bengals, the Texans will come into Baltimore... against the Ravens defense (3rd in total defense in the NFL)... with a rookie quarterback. A fifth round rookie quarterback. Even though Yates has exceeded expectations, this screams mismatch. Of course, Yates does have possibly the best receiver in the game in Andre Johnson to throw to, a top tier running back in Arian Foster, and an extremely underrated offensive line, advantage still goes to the Baltimore D.

On the defensive side of the ball, coordinator Wade Phillips has created a force to be reckoned with. They lost their best defensive player in OLB Mario Williams in week 5, and really didn't miss a beat. They've gotten great production from promising rookies in DE J.J. Watt and OLB Brooks Reed. Former Bengals cornerback Johnathan Joseph turned in a Pro Bowl year in his first season in Houston. And they get great linebacker play, especially from 3rd year man Brian Cushing. The transition from a 4-3 to this year's 3-4 scheme payed immediate dividends and the Texans finished 2nd overall in total defense.

Here's how the Texans stack up statistically to the rest of the league:



Offense:
   Total Yards Per Game - 13th (372.1)

    Pass Yards Per Game - 18th (219.1)

   Rush Yards Per Game - 2nd (153.0)

            Points Per Game - 10th (23.8)

Defense:

        Total Yards Allowed Per Game - 2nd (285.7)

    Passing Yards Allowed Per Game - 3rd (189.7)

   Rushing Yards Allowed Per Game - 4th (96.0)

                 Points Allowed Per Game - 4th (17.4)

Players to watch for:

Offense: RB Arian Foster

   Foster proved this year he wasn't just a product of Vonta Leach's blocking. After winning the NFL rushing title in 2010, he followed it up this year with 1,224 yards rushing (good for 5th in the NFL) 10 touchdowns, and his 2nd consecutive Pro Bowl.

Defense: CB Johnathan Joseph

   After signing what was reported by ESPN to be a 5 year, $48.75 million dollar deal with over 23 million guaranteed before the season, Joseph has shown he was a smart investment for the team. He notched 4 interceptions this season, but more importantly gave the Texans the reliable corner that they sorely missed after letting Dunta Robinson leave for Atlanta prior to the 2010 season. I would also venture to say Joseph is a clear upgrade over what Robinson was for the team. Joseph was also picked for the AFC Pro Bowl team this year.

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