Saturday, January 28, 2012

Ravens Free Agent Analysis

Now that the Ravens season has ended, the team has 21 players who have expiring contracts and will become free agents.

Of the 21, 13 of those players will be unrestricted free agents, meaning that if the team and player do not reach an agreement on a new contract by March 13th, the player will be free to sign with any team. Players must have completed four or more accrued seasons to become UFAs.

Four players will be restricted free agents, in this case the Ravens can offer the player a tender, attached to a draft pick. The Ravens would have the option to match any offer another team makes to the player and retain his services. If they decline to match the offer, the Ravens would obtain the draft pick attached to the tender by means of the other teams forfeiture. RFAs have completed three accrued seasons in the league.

Four more players will be exclusive rights free agents, which, you guessed it, means the Ravens have exclusive rights to the player. Baltimore is the only team that can make them an offer, and if the player declines the offer, they will be released. These players have completed two or fewer seasons in the league.

Here's the complete list of Ravens free agents, and on the UFAs and RFAs we've included a 1-5 COR (chance of returning) scale, with 1 being as good as gone, and 5 being almost certain to stay.


Unrestricted Free Agents:

C Matt Birk - COR (4)
The 35 year old is still a top tier center in the NFL, he's currently considering retirement, but if he decides to keep going, we don't see any reason the Ravens wouldn't want him back.

G Ben Grubbs - COR (3)
The Pro Bowler has been a force on the Ravens line since being drafted in the first round in 2007. The Ravens traditionally like to lock up their high-performing first round picks, but Grubbs will command a big contract and the team just spent big money last year in keeping Marshal Yanda.

C/G Andre Gurode - COR (2)
The former Cowboy was a great fill in last year, starting 5 games when Grubbs was injured, but he's 32 and seemed to be more of a one-year patch.

RB Ray Rice - COR (5)
Rice means more to his team than possibly any other running back in the NFL. He's not going anywhere, and even if the Ravens can't get a long-term deal done, they would certainly use the franchise tag to keep him in Baltimore.

TE Kris Wilson - COR (3)
The 30 year old Wilson filled his role as a blocking tight end perfectly in his first season in Baltimore. He's not a huge part of the team, but he'd be inexpensive to keep and was said to have a good, mentoring relationship with Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta.

LB Brendon Ayanbadejo - COR (4)
Although he's 35, John Harbaugh loves special teams aces, and he really developed as a linebacker this year. Ayanbadejo may have received a hint that he'd be back as well. On Tuesday he tweeted "Most likely staying a raven for life :0) I love the owner coaches players staff fans and baltimore!" The smiley face says it all.

LB Jarrett Johnson - COR (3)
This one could go either way. Johnson has long been praised as one of the most underrated defenders in the league, but he's 30 years old, and the Ravens could look to get younger. Not only that, it's possible Chuck Pagano's Colts would be willing to pay him more to join Pagano in Indy than the Ravens would to keep him in Baltimore.

LB Edgar Jones - COR (3)
The versatile Jones has been on and off the Ravens roster throughout his 5 years in the NFL. We'd expect him to be re-signed to a minimum deal, but making the team next season isn't a guarantee.

LB Jameel McClain - COR (4)
McClain had a good year in his second season as a starter. He continued to play at a high level when Ray Lewis went down with an injury and is only 26. We'd expect him to be back, but he's another guy that Pagano might have his eye on.

DT Brandon McKinney - COR (3)
The hulking McKinney has given the team good depth on the interior defensive line since coming to the team in 2008. He could probably be kept for a relatively inexpensive price, but I don't see the Ravens trying to outbid any other teams if he draws interest.

S Haruki Nakamura - COR (4)
Nakamura is great on special teams and versatile in the secondary. Harbaugh loves that, and I don't see any other team valuing him more than than the Ravens. He should be kept at a low price.

S Tom Zbikowski - COR (2)
Zbikowski has shown he can be a solid option at strong safety. The Ravens like him, but with Bernard Pollard now having a strangle hold on the starting spot in Baltimore, "Zibby" may look for a team where he has a chance to start.

DE Cory Redding - COR (3)
Redding is well respected in the locker room and a very good 3-4 end, but at 31, and with the emergence of Pernell McPhee, it's possible Redding's time in Baltimore may be up. We could see him coming back in the role Trevor Pryce held a few years ago, gradually giving way to McPhee as the starter.

Restricted Free Agents:

RB Matt Lawrence - COR (2)
Lawrence spent the year on injured reserve, and even if the Ravens for some reason tender him an offer, we don't see any way he makes the roster next season.

LB Dannell Ellerbe - COR (4)
Ellerbe has given the Ravens a great option at backup inside linebacker, and he should be back.

CB Lardarius Webb - COR (5)
Webb had a breakout season this year, garnering league wide praise. He's the unquestioned top corner in what suddenly looks like a deep position on the team.

CB Cary Williams - COR (4)
Williams had a great season himself, starting every game and notching 18 pass defenses. He may eventually give way to Jimmy Smith, but right now Williams is a fine option as the number two corner.

Exclusive Rights Free Agents:

LS Morgan Cox
Cox has been a consistent long snapper, and in a long snapper, that's as good as it gets.

CB Danny Gorrer
Gorrer has developed nicely thus far and should continue to grow into a good cornerback. His tight coverage of Santonio Holmes in the Jets game this year sticks out as a highlight.

LB Albert McClellan
The former undrafted free agent from Marshall impressed a lot of people in the organization with his play this year after getting some playing time due to injuries.

LB Sergio Kindle
Kindle is still making progress after returning from the serious head injury he suffered before even playing a game in his rookie year. He needs to progress faster though, and his time may be running out.

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