Game Preview: AFC Championship

This Sunday at 3:00pm the Baltimore Ravens will take on the New England Patriots at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts. Whoever comes out on top will be representing the AFC in the Super Bowl.

The AFC playoff bracket played out as designed, with the two top seeds meeting in the conference championship. The Ravens and Patriots have truly been the two best teams in the AFC throughout the season.

It will be a game that puts strength against strength as the perennial immovable force that is the Ravens defense attempts to shut down the seemingly unstoppable Patriots offense. Can Tom Brady dice up the Ravens defense like all the others he's left in his wake? Can Ed Reed take away the two tight end punch in Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez that has been the death of so many opposing defenses this year? Will Terrell Suggs and the rest of the front seven be able to get pressure on Brady after not registering a single sack against the Texans last week? This is the matchup that will be hyped and talked about the rest of the week. The Patriots offense against the Ravens defense. And rightfully so, but I believe this game will really be decided when these two units are on the sidelines.

The Patriots put up an average of 32.1 points per game (3rd in NFL) throughout the regular season, and they're hot right now. Last week they dropped 45 on Denver. They are going to score some points, but not like they're used to. The Ravens allowed an average of only 16.6 yards per game (also 3rd in NFL) this year. Lets say they split the difference, and the Patriots score 24 points. This is where the matchup of the Ravens offense against the Patriots defense comes into play, and here's why I think it will be the deciding factor.


The Patriots allowed an average of 21.4 points per game this season. If the Ravens "average" offense (23.6 ppg this year) can have an "average" game against a below average defense, Baltimore should end up scoring more points than New England.

The point is, I don't expect the Baltimore defense to have a better game than normal against one of the top offenses in the NFL. But I do expect the Baltimore offense to have at least a slightly better game than normal against one of the worst defenses in football. And that's all that needs to happen for a Ravens win, and a trip to the franchise's second Super Bowl.

Here's how the teams stack up statistically based on the regular season:
Offense:

 NE:

• Points Per Game: 32.1 (3rd)
• Total Yards Per Game: 428.0 (2nd)
• Pass Yards Per Game: 317.8 (2nd)
• Rush Yards Per Game: 110.2 (20th)

BAL:

• Points Per Game: 23.6 (12th)
• Total Yards Per Game: 338.7 (15th)
• Pass Yards Per Game: 213.9 (19th)
• Rush Yards Per Game: 124.8 (10th)

Defense:

 NE:

• Points Per Game: 21.4 (15th)
• Total Yards Per Game: 411.1 (31st)
• Pass Yards Per Game: 293.9 (31st)
• Rush Yards Per Game: 117.1 (17th)

BAL:

• Points Per Game: 16.6 (3rd)
• Total Yards Per Game: 288.9 (3rd)
• Pass Yards Per Game: 196.2 (4th)
• Rush Yards Per Game: 92.6 (2nd)

Now that we've seen the stats, there's been a lot of talk that the Patriots defense isn't quite as bad as it seems. That's true. They are not the 31st best defense in football. The stats may be a bit misleading. The Patriots were constantly leading in their games, and were in high scoring contests for the most part. This causes the other team to pass more, which in the long run will inevitably lead to more pass yards on your defense (It will also generally make your run defense look better on paper, and 17th in the league is not much to brag about to begin with). That being said, they are not a good defense. The main issue they have is the secondary. There are an exact total of zero players in their secondary who scare you. Even with all the passing on them, you don't allow nearly 300 yards of passing a game if your even so much as a solid defense. They are better than second-to-worst, yes. But not good, and definitely in the bottom 10 defenses in the league.

Putting everything else aside, there is one fact that I think sticks out the most to me about these teams:

The Patriots only played two games all year against teams that finished with a winning record. They lost both games.

The Ravens played 7 games against teams that finished with a winning record. They went 6-1 in those games.

If you count the playoffs, the Ravens played 8 winning teams and went 7-1. The Patriots beat the .500 Broncos to advance to the AFC Championship. The last time the Patriots played one of those two winning teams they faced was all the way back in week 9. So New England has played 9 straight games against opponents who finished .500 or less. And now the battle tested Ravens come to town.

All of this being said, I think this will be a hard fought, closely contested game, and I believe the Ravens will come out on top.

We'll leave you with our Ravens Huddle opposing players to watch:

Offense: QB Tom Brady - 5,235 yards, 39 touchdown passes, 105.6 QB rating

Brady is undoubtedly one of the best quarterbacks to ever play the game. He is first-ballot hall of famer, and is at the top of game. It was overshadowed by Drew Brees setting the all-time single-season passing yardage record this year with 5,476 yards, but Brady's 5,235 also broke Dan Marino's record of 5,084 that was set in 1984. Brady essentially can't be stopped, but the Ravens need to slow him to win the game.

Defense: DT Vince Wilfork - 52 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 2 interceptions

Wilfork plays a position that doesn't typically rack up stats, but make no mistake, he's the cornerstone of this defense. He constantly disrupts the pocket from his defensive tackle position and is a force in the running game. Wilfork received his 4th Pro Bowl nod this year, and he's coming off a great game against Denver where he notched 1.5 sacks on Tim Tebow.